Michael Jackson: the Sony generation

Michael Jackson's people have signed the biggest recording contract in history with Sony: some $200m (£164m) for seven years' worth of recordings, franchising, tie-ins and back catalogue. This is 2pac territory with knobs on.

This is something of a gamble for Sony on two counts.

Will Michael Jackson continue to have icon status by 2017? Will his legacy be more Elvis than Princess Di?

And will young fans ever more proficient at using the internet be prepared to fork out hard-earned cash for products that are bound to be pirated as soon as they get released?

Predictions? Pop stars tend to have more staying power after death than other celebrities because of the potential to release unheard material. Actors have to 'be there' on set appear in new films, theatre being a de facto no-no (except for Oliver Reed in Gladiator, Heath Ledger in The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus and Marlon Brando in Superman Returns); writers can be ghosted after death, but turn into franchises (witness Robert Ludlum, Virginia Andrews); fine artists' work is finite, but obscure and famous stuff excites auction houses and markets when it resurfaces to realise some wealthy person's investment; but dead musicians often have the potential to release original material for many years, albeit with diminishing returns on quality.

The more intense the perfectionism trait of a pop star, the higher the probability of there being a hoard of releasable stuff deemed too flawed to share publicly after the performer's death: this is a likely Michael Jackson scenario. Sony plan to release ten albums in the next seven years, some of which are bound to feature original material.

As for downloading songs illegally, yes there will billions of dollars leaking out of the system for any new releases. The jury is out, but evidence may suggested that persistent download freeloaders may also spend more money on products they really want. In the round, the Michael Jackson estate and Sony are unlikely to lose out as loyal fans will want to own full collections of material.

The new factor in this case is the degree to which people feel comfortable downloading pirate material of a recently dead icon. Will it feel like grave-robbing, a little tacky, to fans used to sampling music for free? My guess is probably not, as the 'music wants to be free' meme has held sway now since the heyday of Napster.


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