Bordering on the edge

Borders (UK) Ltd has just gone into administration, appointing MCR to manage the job with the likelihood of 45 shops in the UK turning to dust, or maybe a few more of those Everything-for-a-Pound establishments that grace our high streets. In the US, Oprah Winfrey has sobbed goodbye to her iconic show, Richard and Judy's UKTV show was not much Watched, and Amazon -- currently with about 15 per cent of market share for book sales in the UK -- has launched the Kindle ebook device with a fanfare matching increasing demand from readers for the electronic format: yet oodles of new books are still published every year, 120,947 in 2008 according to Nielsen BookData.

So what might be the medium-term trends? It seems a no-brainer for Apple to launch some kind of iProduct to hoover up loads of technophiles not geeky enough to adopt a Kindle (maybe by launch a smaller, portable version of the iBook laptop computer as a bespoke reading device with nifty applications for downloading content that don't get publishers into a copyright lather). Current demographic studies of reading behaviour show that young people are increasingly used to getting their content on-screen, and although they read books they are tending not to purchase paper-based products as much as before. So, publishers may come to see hardbacks and paperbacks as record labels see vinyl and CDs: as heritage formats for niche markets. All well and good if you have access to the latest computer technology.

But what about the billions of potential readers in the world without internet and/or computer access. Such people often have mobile phones, and internet access is growing, but electronic readers are expensive and may be difficult to replace if they break down. And will currently available ebook readers work in tropical climates and desert heat (i.e are they waterproof and does sand clog up the works)? If publishers produce fewer paper-based titles in the future, how will charities like Book Aid -- committed to getting books into the hands of nascent readers in sub-Saharan Africa -- have enough of the right titles to send? Or will the likes of Amazon and Apple agree preferential contracts to get their electronic readers in African hands in sufficient numbers? Future global literacy projects face new threats and opportunities.