Thursday 8 July 2010

In an octopus's Berchtesgaden

Tea leaves, I Ching, fortune cookies and spurious past history can all lay claim to predicting World Cup football results.

Paul the octopus can now be added to the list. The newly discovered global star at the Sea Life Aquarium in Oberhausen, Germany has been predicting results at the World Cup, with startling accuracy. Given the choice between mussels in transparent boxes adorned with the flags of countries the playing a match, Paul's predictions are taken as the first box he opens to reach his snack.

Oblivious to all the attention, Paul's success in predicting Germany's results (including losses to Serbia and Spain) has had two outcomes: death threats (from Argentines and, latterly, Germans); and increased soothsaying influence. Punters are placing bets with bookmakers based on Paul's preferences to such a degree that it's skewing the market.

For Paul's own safety, there is a news blackout on his predictions for the final between the Netherlands and Spain: one country or the another is going to blame the octopus, however irrational the thought. CCTV cameras may have to be installed.

Actually, though, with 50:50 odds, Paul's guess is as good as anyone's


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